The New Political Divide in Israel

I started wondering where the members and voters where going to come from for Sharon's new political party. He will definitely split the Likud, taking with him at least a third of their votes, maybe more. But where will his additional support come from in order to give him a strong presence in the next Knesset? He'll gain some from the other right wing parties, National Union, Yisrael B'aliyah, and the NRP. However it's unlikely that Shas or Union Torah Judaism voters will shift. A few from the conservative wing of the Labor party may jump ship, especially since Peretz, a leftist labor leader, in now at the helm of the party.

It's ironic to note that Sharon was at the forefront of the repeal of the legislation that allowed for direct election of the prime minister for he has great personal support today in the electorate. Many who might vote for him as prime minister and their own party for the Knesset would be loathe to vote for his new party. Sharon benefited from this law in the 2001 elections and then campaigned for its repeal. He may live to regret it.

This Morning in Israel

So it seems there is to be early elections. Not unexpected. Now that we have Peretz, a so-called leftist in charge of the labor party, Prime Minister Sharon is in process of reinventing himself as a centrist and will establish a new party. Never a dull moment in the Holy Land. But will the next elections change the facts on the ground? Will the Palestinians come any closer to establishing a viable sovereign state. I think not. Sharon's government continues to expand the West Bank Settlements, gobbling up Palestinian land at an ever-increasing rate.

Notwithstanding Peretz's commitment to evacuating West Bank Settlers, the best that the Palestinians can hope for is a truncated state chopped into poverty stricken Bantustans amid a sea of upper middle class Jewish settlements. Look forward to the third Intifada.